I posted yesterday about the enthusiastic response of leading virtual world agencies Rivers Run Red and Millions of Us to the launch of Google’s Lively, and their membership of the Preferred Developer Program. It appears that their enthusiasm for the new product is not universal among agencies operating in the space, however; Sibley Verbeck, CEO of The Electric Sheep Company, another key agency, has posted a very well argued piece about the weaknesses of Lively, and his doubts over its potential for success. He is by no means writing it off, but does raise concerns with the strategy.
Verbeck’s post is well worth a read. Nevertheless, I do not share his pessimism. Below is an outline of his main points, and my take on why Lively might actually be in a very strong positon.
1. Verbeck correctly points out that Lively does not appear to be aimed at tweens, who have established themselves as by far the most important demographic in virtual worlds, as evidenced by the success of the likes of Club Penguin and Habbo. Indeed, Google’s Terms of Service explicitly prohibit the site’s use by those under 13. However, ultimately the tween market isn’t the most valuable. Tweens have little disposable income, and little ability to spend it online, and whilst it is clearly possible to make money from serving them, it seems likely that the biggest financial successes will come from virtual worlds which serve those with more financial clout. Compare the $860 sale of Bebo, traditionally the social network of tweens in Britain, to the $15 billion valuation of Facebook, far more universal in its appeal.
2. He points out the expressed desire of enterprise to have virtual worlds deployed in business uses such as meetings and training to be behind the firewall. Whilst this desire will certainly continue for some time, the growing adoption of enterprise-targeted products such as Google Apps and Salesforce clearly demonstrates that CIOs are slowly coming over to the idea of trusting large companies with strong track records with their data. Google is successfully positioning itself as such a company.
3. It is suggested that big media will not want to put their content in Google’s virtual worlds for fear of losing control over advertising models. However, as I argued yesterday, revenue share in some form is likely to be a big part of the model Google adopts for virtual world advertising. If Google can bring traffic to Lively, and monetise that traffic both for itself and those whose content it hosts, then big media may well be in no position to avoid Lively.
5. The requirement for a plugin is undoubtedly a major barrier to the adoption of Lively; it is highly irritating. However, Google has a couple of different, and not necessarily mutually exclusive, options here. It already distributes a lot of software, and it could try to push Lively out with other products such as Desktop. More likely, and less shady, would be for Google to seek to create some sort of open standard to break the chicken and egg problem. It has a track record in this tactic, with its open sourcing of Gears a prime example. Google is surely likely to try and create an open and widely used industry standard for the placement of virtual worlds within the browser – it will not be without competition in this goal!
6. The lack of any ability to sell virtual goods is seen as a weakness by Verbeck. However, if I am right, and Google sees ads as the central part of any effort to monetise Lively, then such a feature is not of vital and urgent importance.