Technology Intellegence Group has released its Virtual World Industry Outlook 2008-2009 report, available online here. The report is aimed at those ‘investigating and or launching a virtual presence in a public virtual ‘Intraverse’ within their firm or institution.’ The report argues that the over-hype/backlash cycle has played out: we are all aware of the vast coverage that Second Life in particular recieved, followed by the reaction against an endless stream of empty stories about a company dipping its toes in the water of virtual worlds.
I very much agree with the report’s identification of a trend towards virtual worlds becoming a feature, rather than something distinct from the rest of the internet: ‘Virtual worlds [now] assimilate other Internet functions such as social networking and voice communication, and are assimilated themselves into other platforms as a feature of a website or a browser convention, making the Internet more graphically intuitive, entertaining, and collaborative.’ It is this which is virtual worlds’ best hope for reaching the mainstream, by becoming something which augments the online experience rather than existing in parallel.
The report contains a look aheard to the coming year. It argues that what it describes as ‘Brand Balkans’ - exclusive, bespoke virtual worlds created by a brand - will grow in popularity. It cites the availability of new tools such as WebFlock which will shorten the development cycle, yet still alllow for the creation of impressive user experiences. Nevertheless, costs remain relatively high, with WebFlock costing in the six figures. Another prediction is that overlay experiences will reach the mainstream. These provide an avatar dimension to an existing web experience - Rocketon is an example of this.
The report is very wide in its scope, also dealing comprehensively with the legal issues which will continue to be crucial in virtual worlds, particularly as they become more popular. The summary: “In summary, we believe that the virtual world industry is emerging from primarily boutique and experimental uses to the mainstream. Over the next year we will see further vendor innovation in this space with new market entrants, casualties of earlier entrants from either market or execution failures, and consolidation in the form of the market-leading firms being acquired by larger technology and media concerns who wish to mark their territory. With all of the creative energy, financial capital, customer interest, and ‘eye candy’ to show the press, 2008-2009 should see considerably greater growth in the industry than years past.”
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