There will be 33 million users of virtual worlds in 2013, argues a new report from Parks Associates. This represents an increase of about 260% over the report's estimate of today's numbers at 9m. It's worth noting that the report is looking specifically at 'PC-based 3D virtual worlds'. At present, of course, these represent a fraction of the overall virtual world market in terms of user numbers, with Flash-based virtual worlds like Habbo and Club Penguin enjoying far greater popularity than their 3D counterparts such as Second Life.
The report's author, Yuanzhe (Michael) Cai, argues that in order to achieve this substantial increase, 3D virtual worlds need to abandon user-generated content: "Without appealing content and applications, virtual worlds are nothing but empty shopping malls. The industry needs to move beyond its obsession with user-generated content and make 3D virtual worlds more interesting to average consumers." That's all well and good – it's easy to see why 3D design and user generated content don't necessarily go together at the moment, given how hard it is to create a 3D object relative to shooting a video or posting a twitter. But would 3D worlds really amount to much without UGC at the moment? Professional content at its most successful in 3D virtual worlds needs to be monetised – usually through microtransactions for virtual goods. Yet there's no evidence to suggest that 3D virtual goods are any more lucrative than 2D virtual goods: Stardoll does just fine without full 3D works. So if users don't like UGC in 3D worlds, and they're not bothered by whether their professional content is 2D or 3D, why bother with 3D at all?
Of course, the answer to that question is that 3D promises to provide far more immersive experiences. Clearly 3D worlds have a very strong future, but not unless they offer something beyond the possibilities of 2D worlds. Providing more exciting possibilities for user-generated content is one way in which 3D worlds could differentiate themselves.
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